List of Tables List of Figures Preface Acknowledgments Introduction Glossary of Mathematical Symbols in Order of Appearance Part 1. The Progressive Emergence of Expectations in Economic Theory 1. Expectations Before the Rational Expectations Revolution 2. Rational Expectations Are Endogenous to and Abide by "the" Model Part 2. Allais's Theory of "Expectations" Under Uncertainty 3. Macrofoundations of Monetary Dynamics 4. Microfoundations of Monetary Dynamics: The HRL Formulation of the Demand for Money 5. The Fundamental Equation of Monetary Dynamics 6. Joint Testing of the HRL Formulation of the Demand for Money and of the Fundamental Equation of Monetary Dynamics Part 3. Transposing the HRL Formulation to Financial Markets: Preliminary Steps 7. Allais's HRL Formulation: Illustration of Its Dynamic Properties by an Example of Hyperinflation (Zimbabwe 2000-2008) 8. The HRL Formulation and Nominal Interest Rates Part 4. The HRL Formulation and Financial Instability 9. Perceived Returns and the Modeling of Financial Behavior 10. Downside Potential Under Risk: The Allais Paradox and Its Conflicting Interpretations 11. Downside Potential Under Uncertainty: The Perceived Risk of Loss 12. Conclusion Appendix A: How to Compute Zn and zn Appendix B: Nominal Interest Rates and the Perceived Rate of Nominal Growth Appendix C: Proofs Appendix D: Comparison Between the Kalman Filter and Allais's HRL Algorithm Appendix E: A Note on the Theory of Intertemporal Choice Appendix F: Allais's Cardinal Utility Function Notes Bibliography Index
I. ROOTS AND ROUTE MAPS 1. Econometrics - Alchemy or Science? 2. Stochastic Specification in an Aggregate Demand Model of the United Kingdom 3. Testing Dynamic Specification in Small Simultaneous Systems: an Application to a Model of Building Society Behaviour in the United Kingdom 4. Dynamic Specification II. THE DEVELOPMENT OF EMPIRICAL MODELLING STRATEGIES 5. On the Time-Series Approach 6. Serial Correlation as a Convenient Simplification, not a Nuisance: a Comment on a Study of the Demand for Money by the Bank of England 7. An Empirical Application and Monte Carlo Analysis of the Tests of Dynamic Specification 8. Econometric Modelling of the Aggregate Tme-Series Relationship between Consumers' Expenditure and Income in the United Kingdom 9. Liquidity and Inflation Effects on Consumers' Expenditure 10. Interpreting Econometric Evidence: The Behaviour of Consumers' Expenditure in the United Kingdom 11. Predictive Failure and Econometric Modelling in Macroeconomics: the Transactions Demand for Money 12. Monetary Economic Myth and Econometric Reality III. FORMALIZATION 13. The Structure of Simultaneous Equations Estimators 14. AUTOREG: a Computer Program Library for Dynamic Econometric Models with Autoregressive Errors 15. Exogenity 16. On the Formulation of Empirical Models in Dynamic Econometrics 17. The Econometric Analysis of Economic Time Series IV. RETROSPECT AND PROSPECT 18. Econometric Modelling: the 'Consumption Function' in Retrospect 19. Postscript: the Econometrics of PC-GIVE 20. Epilogue: the Success of General-to-Specific Model Selection
1. The Monetary Use of Weighed Bullion in Archaic Greece 2. What Was Money in Ancient Greece and Rome? 3. Money and Tragedy 4. The Elasticity of the Money-Supply at Athens 5. Coinage as 'Code' in Ptolemaic Egypt 6. The Demand for Money in the Late Roman Republic 7. Money and Prices in the Early Roman Empire 8. The Function of Gold Coinage in the Monetary Economy of the Roman Empire 9. The Nature of Roman Money 10. The Use and Survival of Coins and of Gold and Silver in the Vesuvian Cities 11. The Monetization of the Roman Frontier Provinces: A Quantitative Revision 12. The Divergent Evolution of Coinage in Eastern and Western Eurasia
For twenty years since the publication of his seminal paper 'The Market for "Lemons"', George A. Akerlof's work has changed the way we see economics, and the economics of information in particular. In abandoning the perfect-competition benchmarks of classical economics, the pragmatic modern economics championed by Akerlof has provided deep insights into markets, identity, discrimination, motivation, and work, and into behavioural economics in general. This collection of Akerlof's most important papers provide both an introduction to Akerlof's work and a grounding in modern economics. Divided into two broad areas, micro- and macroeconomics, they cover the economics of information; the theory of unemployment; macroeconomic equilibria; the demand for money; psychology and economics; and the nature of discrimination and other social issues. The collection closes with Akerlof's 2001 Nobel Lecture, in which he argues that it is imperative that macroeconomics be considered inherently behavioural. Akerlof's substantial introduction to this volume tells the story of these papers, connecting them and showing how his later work has built upon his early contributions, in many cases improving their arguments, their subtlety, and their usefulness today. Contributors to this volume - George A. Akerlof Co-authors on certain chapters: Rachel E. Kranton Janet L. Yellen Michael L. Katz William T. Dickens Paul M. Romer George L. Perry
Until quite recently most people were either in the dark or in denial about climate change, and even now that the impact is showing up dramatically in (man-made) "natural” disasters such as typhoons, hurricanes, fires, floods, and rising seas, the world remains divided over what action to take and largely ignorant as to what the cost of action will be. The critical issue of who will pay for a climate rescue operation has long been neglected, and now that it is finally coming into focus it is obvious that the potential deficit of finance is matched by a similar deficit of clear thinking on how to marshal and deploy the funds needed to transition successfully from a "brown" to a "green" global economy. This book discusses the nature of the threat of climate change and the problems faced by governments in combatting climate change, as well as potential solutions.
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