Practical Spreadsheet Risk Modeling for Management

ISBN: 9781439855522 出版年：2016 页码：276 Lehman, Dale Groenendaal, Huybert Nolder, Greg CRC Press

Conceptual Maps and Models Introductory Case: Mobile Phone Service First Steps: Visualization Retirement Planning Example Good Practices with Spreadsheet Model Construction Errors in Spreadsheet Modeling Conclusion: Best Practices Basic Monte Carlo Simulation in Spreadsheets Introductory Case: Retirement Planning Risk and Uncertainty Scenario Manager Monte Carlo Simulation Monte Carlo Simulation Using ModelRisk Monte Carlo Simulation for Retirement Planning Discrete Event Simulation Modeling with Objects Introductory Case: An Insurance Problem Frequency and Severity Objects Using Objects in the Insurance Model Modeling Frequency/Severity without Using Objects Modeling Deductibles Using Objects without Simulation Multiple Severity/Frequency Distributions Uncertainty and Variability Selecting Distributions First Introductory Case: Valuation of a Public Company-Using Expert Opinion Modeling Expert Opinion in the Valuation Model Second Introductory Case: Value at Risk-Fitting Distributions to Data Distribution Fitting for VaR, Parameter Uncertainty, and Model Uncertainty Commonly Used Discrete Distributions Commonly Used Continuous Distributions A Decision Guide for Selecting Distributions Bayesian Estimation Modeling Relationships First Example: Drug Development Second Example: Collateralized Debt Obligations Multiple Correlations Third Example: How Correlated Are Home Prices?-Copulas Empirical Copulas Fourth Example: Advertising Effectiveness Regression Modeling Simulation within Regression Models Multiple Regression Models The Envelope Method Summary Time Series Models Introductory Case: September 11 and Air Travel The Need for Time Series Analysis: A Tale of Two Series Analyzing the Air Traffic Data Second Example: Stock Prices Types of Time Series Models Third Example: Oil Prices Fourth Example: Home Prices and Multivariate Time Series. Markov Chains Optimization and Decision Making Introductory Case: Airline Seat Pricing A Simulation Model of the Airline Pricing Problem A Simulation Table to Explore Pricing Strategies An Optimization Solution to the Airline Pricing Problem Optimization with Simulation Optimization with Multiple Decision Variables Adding Requirements Presenting Results for Decision Making Stochastic Dominance Appendix A: Monte Carlo Simulation Software Introduction A Brief Tour of Four Monte Carlo Packages Index