The History of Econometric Ideas

ISBN: 9780521424653 出版年：1990 页码：314 Mary S Morgan Cambridge University Press

List of figures Preface Acknowledgements Introduction Part I. Business Cycles: Introduction to business cycles 1. Sunspot and Venus theories of the business cycle: 1.1. Jevons' sunspot theory 1.2. Moore's Venus theory 1.3. The decline of periodic cycle analysis 2. Measuring and representing business cycles: 2.1. Juglar's credit cycle 2.2. The statistical approach of W. C. Mitchell 2.3. Persons and business barometers 2.4. The business cycle research institutes 2.5. Statistical economics and econometrics Addendum: graphs and graphic methods 3. Random shocks enter the business cycle scene: 3.1. The experiments of Yule and Slutsky 3.2. Frisch's time-series analysis 3.3. Frisch's rocking horse model of the business cycle 4. Tinbergen and macrodynamic models: 4.1. The Dutch model 4.2. The first League of Nations' report 4.3. The second League of Nations' report 4.4. the critical reaction to Tinbergen's work Part II. Demand Analysis: Introduction to demand analysis 5. Narrowing the data-theory gap in demand analysis: 5.1. Difficulties in early statistical measurements of demand 5.2. Static theory and time-series data 5.3. Econometric models of demand 5.4. The data-theory gap under review 6. The evolution of identification questions: 6.1. The emergence of correspondence problems 6.2. Identifying the demand curve 6.3. The identification of two relationships 6.4. Back to the single demand curve Part III. Formal models in econometrics: Introduction to formal models 7. Errors-in-variables and errors-in equations models: 7.1. Errors and the single equation 7.2. Errors and interdependent relationships 7.3. Postscript: measurement errors and the method of instrumental variables 8. Haavelmo's probability model: 8.1. Statistics without probability 8.2. Signs of change 8.3. Haavelmo's probabilistic revolution in econometrics 8.4. The new consensus Conclusion References Index.