Part I. Theory and Methodology: 1. A natural experiment 2. A theory of international order 3. Three international trajectories 4. Liberalism and its rivals: history, typology, and measurement Part II. Contingent Selection and Systematic Effects: Country-Level Analyses of Elite Selection, Ideational Change, and Institutional Choice, 1991-2002: 5. The Baltic states and Moldova 6. Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine 7. The Caucasus 8. Central Asia Part III. Comparing Cases: 9. Alternative explanations and statistical tests 10. Smoking guns: a causal history of institutional choice 11. Conclusions and implications of the analysis.
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