Rational Choice and Judgment —— Decision Analysis for the Decider

----- 理想选择与判断：决定者的决策分析

ISBN: 9780471202370 出版年：2005 页码：278 Rex Brown Wiley

Preface. Who Might Use This Book. Background. Substance of this Book. Pedagogy. Demands on Students and Instructor. Other Approaches, Other Materials. Author Background. Acknowledgments. Prolog: A Baby Delivery Dilemma. 1. Basics and Overview. 2. Uses of Decision Analysis. Appendix 2A: Decision Analysis Reflects on His Work. 3. Evaluating a Choice Qualitatively. 4. Quantitative Aid to Rational Choice. Appendix 4A: Business Decision Tree Example. Appendix 4B: Private Example: Study or Play? 5. Describing Outcomes. 6. Taking Preference Into Account. 7. Choice Under Uncertainty. Appendix 7A. Technical Notes. 8. Decision Aiding Strategy. Appendix 8A. Influence Sketches. 9. Aiding the Professional Decider. Appendix 9A. Environmental Regulation Case Study. 10. Assessing and Inferring Probabilities. 11. Eliciting Preferences. 12. Applied Term Project. Appendix 12A. Student Project Report. Epilog. References. Glossary of Concepts and Terms. Index.