A Treatise on Probability

ISBN: 9781440094248 出版年：2016 页码：478 John Maynard Keynes Forgotten Books

Part 1 Fundamental ideas: the meaning of probability - probability in relation to the theory of knowledge - the measurement of probabilities - the principle of indifference - other methods of determining probabilities - the weight of arguments - historical retrospect - the frequency theory of probability - the constructive theory of part 1 summarized. Part 2 Fundamental theorems: introductory - the theory of groups, with special reference to logical consistence, inference, and logical priority - the definitions and axioms of inference and probability - the fundamental theorems of probable inference - numerical measurement and approximation of probabilities - observations on the theorems of chapter 14 and their developments, including testimony - some problems in inverse probability, including averages. Part 3 Induction and analogy: introduction - the nature of argument by analogy - the value of multiplication of instances, or pure induction - the nature of inductive argument continued - the justification of these methods - some historical notes on induction - notes on part 3. Part 4 Some philosophical applications of probability: the meanings of objective chance, and of randomness - some problems arising out of the discussion of change - the application of probability to conduct. Part 5 The foundations of statistical inference: the nature of statistical inference - the law of great numbers - the use of a priori probabilities for the prediction of statistical frequency - the mathematical use of statistical frequencies for the determination of probability a posteriori - the inversion of Bernoulli's theorem - the inductive use of statistical frequencies for the determination of probability a posteriori - outline of a constructive theory.