Uncertainty, Expectations, and Financial Instability —— Reviving Allais's Lost Theory of Psychological Time

----- 不确定性,期望和财务不稳定:复兴阿莱思失去的心理时间理论

ISBN: 9780231538305 出版年:2014 页码:444 Barthalon, Eric Columbia University Press

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内容简介

List of Tables List of Figures Preface Acknowledgments Introduction Glossary of Mathematical Symbols in Order of Appearance Part 1. The Progressive Emergence of Expectations in Economic Theory 1. Expectations Before the Rational Expectations Revolution 2. Rational Expectations Are Endogenous to and Abide by "the" Model Part 2. Allais's Theory of "Expectations" Under Uncertainty 3. Macrofoundations of Monetary Dynamics 4. Microfoundations of Monetary Dynamics: The HRL Formulation of the Demand for Money 5. The Fundamental Equation of Monetary Dynamics 6. Joint Testing of the HRL Formulation of the Demand for Money and of the Fundamental Equation of Monetary Dynamics Part 3. Transposing the HRL Formulation to Financial Markets: Preliminary Steps 7. Allais's HRL Formulation: Illustration of Its Dynamic Properties by an Example of Hyperinflation (Zimbabwe 2000-2008) 8. The HRL Formulation and Nominal Interest Rates Part 4. The HRL Formulation and Financial Instability 9. Perceived Returns and the Modeling of Financial Behavior 10. Downside Potential Under Risk: The Allais Paradox and Its Conflicting Interpretations 11. Downside Potential Under Uncertainty: The Perceived Risk of Loss 12. Conclusion Appendix A: How to Compute Zn and zn Appendix B: Nominal Interest Rates and the Perceived Rate of Nominal Growth Appendix C: Proofs Appendix D: Comparison Between the Kalman Filter and Allais's HRL Algorithm Appendix E: A Note on the Theory of Intertemporal Choice Appendix F: Allais's Cardinal Utility Function Notes Bibliography Index

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