Environmental Foresight and Models —— A Manifesto

----- 环境预见与模型：宣言

ISBN: 9780080440866 出版年：2002 页码：490 Elsevier Science_RM

Preface. Part I 1. Introduction (M.B. Beck). 2. We have a problem (M.B. Beck). 3. Beginnings of a change of perspective (M.B. Beck). 4. Structural change: A definition (M.B. Beck). 5. The manifesto (M.B. Beck). 6. Epilogue (M.B. Beck). Part II 7. Lake Erie and evolving issues of the quality of its water (W.M. Schertzer, D.C.L. Lam). 8. Impacts of acidic atmospheric deposition on the chemical composition of stream water and soil water (G.M. Hornberger). 9. The ozone problem (R.L. Dennis). Part III 10. Belief networks: Generating the feared dislocations (O. Varis). 11. Random search and the reachability of target futures (M.B. Beck, J. Chen, O.O. Osidele). 12. Uncertainty and the detection of structural change in models of environmental systems (K.J. Beven). 13. Simplicity out of complexity (P.C. Young, S. Parkinson, M. Lees). 14. Structural effects of landscape and land use in streamflow response (T.S. Kokkonen, A.J. Jakeman). 15. Elasto-plastic deformation of structure (M.B. Beck, J.D. Stigter, D. Lloyd Smith). 16. Detecting and forecasting growth in the seeds of change (J. Chen, M.B. Beck). 17. Probing the shores of ignorance (R.L. Dennis, J.R. Arnold, G.S. Tonnesen). Part IV 18. Parametric change as the agent of control (K.J. Keesman). 19. Identifying the inclination of a system towards a terminal state from current observations (A.V. Kryazhimskii, M.B. Beck). Biosketches of authors. Subject Index.